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FRX: Copper marches up, looks to China for direction
 
MARKETS-METALS (UPDATE 3)
* Market focus on China restocking next year

* Eyes on copper, lead stocks

(Recasts, adds comment/details, pvs Singapore)

By Pratima Desai

LONDON, Dec 17 (Reuters) - Copper prices marched up on Friday as the market focused on strong fundamentals and expectations of strong demand from top consumer China and as the dollar eased against the euro.

Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange was trading at $9,082 a tonne at 1052 GMT from $8,991 at the close on Thursday.

The metal used in power and construction has gained more than 50 percent since early June when financial markets feared meltdown in euro zone countries such as Greece.

It hit a record high of $9,267.50 a tonne on Dec. 14.

Much of the rise in recent weeks has been due to investors betting on China's return to the global copper market early next year after a period of destocking.

"The Chinese have been destocking since the second quarter of this year, they need to rebuild those stocks," said Michael Widmer, analyst at BoA Merrill Lynch.

"When the Chinese come back into the market in the first or second quarter next year, copper will do very well."

Widmer is expecting copper to average above $11,000 a tonne next year and is expecting the global demand -- estimated at around 19 million tonnes this year -- to exceed supplies this year and next.

The dollar was down against the euro, but recovered some poise after Moody's slashed Ireland's sovereign ratings by five notches, a reminder for investors that the single currency's debt-related woes are far from over.

A lower dollar makes metals priced in the U.S. currency cheaper for holders of other currencies.

COMPARABLE

Stocks of copper in LME warehouses rose for the fifth day on the trot. Latest data showed a small uptick, 600 tonnes to 361,400 tonnes. However, that is little more than seven days global consumption.

Overall global stocks estimated at above 1.2 million tonnes account for more than three weeks of global consumption.

"Reported stocks could fall below one weeks' worth of demand next year, that's uncharted territory," Widmer said.

Worries about supplies is one reason why there is a premium -- about $40 a tonne for the cash contract over the three-month contract.

For battery material lead too, a $14 a tonne discount for cash metal over the three-month future has forayed into premium territory.

However, stocks of lead at above 207,600 tonnes are near their highest since May 2000.

"The lead stock situation should not be viewed too bearishly," Standard Bank said in a note. "The total is are still low on a relative basis and is comparable with copper in terms of weeks of consumption."

Three-month lead was trading at $2,380 a tonne from $2,370 on Thursday, aluminium at $2,340 a tonne from $2,318 and zinc at $2,266 a tonne from $2,220.

Tin was at $26,200 a tonne from $26,100 on Thursday and nickel at $24,725 a tonne from $24,700.

Metal Prices at 1054 GMT

Comex copper in cents/lb, LME prices in $/T and SHFE prices in yuan/T Metal Last Change Percent Move End 2009 Ytd Percent
Source