DY: Crude Moves Toward $90 as Equities Rally, Gold Little Changed but Trend Intact
Commentary: Crude advanced for a third straight session, adding $1.01, or 1.14%, to settle at $89.82. Oil is now at the very top end of the $87 to $90 range that has contained prices this month. Another 2-year high in U.S. equity markets was the catalyst, with seemingly no bad news of significance on the radar at the moment. The Fed continues to be extremely supportive with its loose monetary policy, and corporate earnings are rebounding swiftly despite persistently high unemployment. More importantly, global growth is booming with the IMF expecting 4.2% growth in 2011 after 4.8% growth in 2010. It’s easy to get caught up in the various negative headlines we get occasionally, such as the European sovereign debt crisis. And while those risks should not be outright discounted, they should be put in perspective and weighed against the larger macro theme of the industrialization of billions of people in developing economies.
Tomorrow brings the DOE report on U.S. petroleum inventories. The API survey showed a 5.8 million barrel crude draw, a 2.9 million barrel gasoline draw, and unchanged distillate inventories. Keep in mind that the API figures were way off last week.
Technical Outlook: Prices have taken out resistance at $89.67, the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 11/17-12/7 upswing. From here, the bulls are poised to challenge December’s swing high at $91.17, with a break above that exposing the top of a rising channel set from August (now at $92.04). The 14.6% has been recast as near-term support.
Commentary: Gold inched higher by $0.35, or 0.03%, to end the day at $1385.60. A lack of negative news flow seems to be keeping a lid on gold for now. Moreover, with risk assets rallying across financial markets, gold faces a lot of competition for incremental capital inflows. On the flip side, a rising tide lifts all boats. But clichés aside, there is really very little that can derail this uptrend in gold. The metal has been resilient to everything that has been thrown at it thus far, from rallies in the U.S. Dollar to spiking U.S. Treasury yields. The only potential downside risk remaining is Fed rate hikes down the line, but that’s a ways off. With ETF holdings back at record levels and Chinese demand surging, the 10-year bull trend in gold prices remains intact.
Technical Outlook: Prices are showing a Doji candlestick following a retest of resistance at the rising trend line set from mid-November (now at $1399.74), pointing to indecision and hinting the corrective upswing noted over the past two days may be running out of steam. A reversal lower sees initial support at $1380.47, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 11/16-12/7 rally. Alternatively, a break above the trend line exposes the 23.6% Fib level at $1407.28.
Silver - $29.37 // $0.03 // 0.11%
Commentary: Silver was close to unchanged on Tuesday near $29.34 as the metal moved lockstep with gold. ETF holdings were flat at 484.6 million troy ounces, just below the record level of 487.8 million.
The gold/silver ratio was flat at 47.3, near the lowest levels since February 2007. (The gold/silver ratio measures the relative performance of the two precious metals. A higher ratio indicates gold outperformance, while a lower ratio indicates silver outperformance).
Technical Outlook: Prices remain wedged between a rising trend line set from late October, now at $29.10, and the 14.6%Fibonacci retracement of the 10/22-12/07 rallyat $29.55. A break above near term resistance exposes the latest swing high at $30.70. Alternatively, a reversal through the trend line (reinforced by the 23.6% Fib at $28.85) targets the 38.2% level at $27.70.