The U.S. trade deficit probably widened in November as higher oil prices and a growing economy boosted imports faster than exports, economists said before a report today. The projected $40.5 billion gap would follow a $38.7 billion shortfall in October, according to the median estimate of 71 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Other reports may show the cost of wholesale goods rose in December and initial jobless claims were little changed last week. A pickup in consumer spending and gains in business investment, combined with further increases in fuel prices, will probably continue to boost imports. At the same time, companies like General Electric Co. and Boeing Co. are benefiting from growing demand abroad and a lower dollar that are driving exports and propelling a factory-led economic recovery. “The recent firming in domestic demand points to rising imports,” said Michelle Meyer, a senior economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research in New York. “Exports are expected to benefit from the lagged effect of the weaker trade value of the dollar and stronger foreign growth.” The Commerce Department’s trade figures are due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Estimates in the Bloomberg survey ranged from deficits of $37.5 billion to $43.5 billion. A Labor Department report at the same time may show wholesale costs rose 0.8 percent in December for a second month, reflecting higher prices for crude oil and metals, according to the Bloomberg survey median. Jobless Claims Also at 8:30 a.m., another Labor Department report will show 410,000 Americans applied for unemployment benefits last week compared with 409,000 the prior week, according to the survey median. Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, is playing a growing role in the recovery after lagging behind in the initial stages. Holiday purchases rose 5.5 percent, the best performance since 2005, said MasterCard Advisors’ SpendingPulse. Even so, manufacturing, boosted by rising exports, capital spending and inventory building, continues to lead the global recovery, helping drive up commodity prices. The cost of imported petroleum rose 3.9 percent in December after climbing 4.4 percent the prior month, the Labor Department reported yesterday. Oil prices were up 14 percent in December compared with a year earlier, partly due to a weaker dollar. Weaker Dollar Since reaching a one-year high on June 7, the dollar has dropped 6.5 percent against a trade-weighted basket of currencies. The decrease makes American goods cheaper to buyers abroad and may keep spurring manufacturing, which expanded for a 17th consecutive month in November. Shares of manufacturers have increased more in the past year than the broader indexes. The Standard & Poor’s Supercomposite Industrial Machinery Index climbed 41 percent through yesterday, while the S&P 500 gained 13 percent. Growing overseas economies are contributing to demand for U.S. goods. China, set to become the world’s second-largest economy this year, had a 9.6 percent gain in third-quarter gross domestic product from a year earlier. India grew 8.9 percent and Brazil expanded 6.7 percent. GE last month said sales may increase as much as 5 percent this year as its industrial divisions, which include the world’s largest manufacturers of power-generation equipment, jet engines and locomotives, return to growth. Emerging Markets In an annual outlook meeting with investors on Dec. 14, GE’s Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Immelt said the pace of industrial expansion will increase further in 2012. He pointed to Brazil as an emerging market where GE is building investments to fuel sales growth. Boeing, which sold more than three times as many commercial airplanes in 2010 as the year before, and larger rival Airbus SAS are boosting production this year to accommodate orders from airlines and lessors. Randy Tinseth, marketing chief at Boeing’s Commercial Airplanes unit, said in a Jan. 6 interview that the growth trend for orders will continue as passenger and cargo traffic rebounds and emerging economies expand. President Barack Obama is seeking to double American exports over the next five years. The Commerce Department has asked industry groups to review its proposal to relax export controls for technology items with military uses, covering sales to 37 allies including Germany, Japan and Canada.

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