Agri commodities witnessed downtrend this week with Indian pepper futures falling on account of weak overseas demand while chana weakened on profit booking after a rally in the previous week. Soybean prices in India s National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange weakened on fall in domestic demand and tracked global cues. Soybeans for March delivery declined 0.1 percent to US$13.975 a bushel in Chicago for a weekly drop of l percent on Friday. Rains forecast in Argentina will help ease stress to the nation s soybean crops improving harvest. Corn rose in Chicago reducing a weekly drop on concern that rain in Argentina came too late to shelter crops in the world s second largest exporter from damage caused by dry weather Bloomberg reported. March delivery corn advanced 0.5 percent to US$6.5425 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade heading for apossible 0.5 percent decline this week.
COMMODITY ANALYSIS
Pepper Pepper futures in India rose at the end of the week on the back of poor arrivals in the peak season prompted bargain buying and limited stocks. In the mid week pepper futures showed weak trends due to poor overseas demand. Arrivals from the new crop have started in some of the interior markets of Kerala but in very small quantities. In India the crop is harvested from December to February but this year was delayed due to unseasonal rains. Most of the pepper producing countries has been left with very thin stocks analysts and traders said. In Kochi spot market on Friday pepper gained 127 rupees to end at 22 187 rupees per 100 kg due to lower stocks. India imported 14 600 tonnes of black pepper during January December 2010 as against the export of 16000 tonnes they said. Indian parity in the international market was at US$5200-5225 a tonne (c f). In futures market at NCDEX Pepper February contract opened this week at Rs.23093 and closed down by 3.39% at Rs.22308 while March contract tumbled 3.43% from 23499 to Rs 22691 after hitting a high of Rs.23560. (To get regular market updates and analysis on Indian spices industry subscribe to Commodity Online Info Service) Chana Chana futures weakened on profit booking at higher levels marriage season demand weak arrivals of the commodity kept prices from falling drastically.
A rise in pigeon peas or tur and concerns over chana crop in Madhya Pradesh aided sentiment. In the short to medium term weather would be an important factor to be watched for as the final estimates on the crop would mainly depend on the weather conditions during the crop development period. Reports that M.P is expected to produce less of this commodity owing to frost and cold weather in the beginning of the month led prices to gain in the previous week. The government has extended the ban on the export of pulses (except Kabuli Chana) till 31 March 2011 and has permitted import of pulses at zero duty up to 01 Apr 2011 to curtail the spiraling prices of food articles. For 2010 2011 the government has set the Chana production target at 75.8 lakh tones nearly 3% more than the 2009 10 production of 73.6 lakh tone however there are concerns now whether this target can be met with reports of extensive crop damages in chief growing regions.
NCDEX February delivery contract opened at Rs 2773 and closed at Rs 2669 down by 3.75% whereas Chana March contract opened at Rs.2800 recorded a high of 2805 and ended at Rs.2651 a decline of 5.31 % and market is supported by marriage season demand and arrival delays due to adverse weather. (To get regular market updates and analysis on Indian pulses market subscribe to Commodity Online Info Service) Rubber Rubber futures in India fell this week on sluggish demand in the physical market while in global market rubber futures rose on the back of firm overseas demand and supply concerns due to adverse weather in growing regions. The most active contract of rubber on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange gained as much as 3.2 percent on Friday to 474.8 yen per kilogram (US$5 725 a ton).
Natural rubber demand may grow 4.6 percent this year boosted by strong vehicle sales with consumption continuing to outpace supply in coming years according to the International Rubber Study Group. Global consumption may gain to 11.2 million metric tons in 2011 and 11.6 million tons next year said the group s secretary general. The supply deficit will support prices of the commodity used to make tires and gloves he said. At NMCE February contract declined by 6.064 % to Rs 22629 while March contract fell by 6.18 % to 23186 per quintal. Spot rates of rubber on Friday were (Rs kg): Spot rates were (Rs kg): RSS 4: 224 RSS 5: 215 ungraded: 212 and latex 60 per cent: 151. Soybean Soybean futures in India fell this week on subdued domestic demand and on higher rapeseed output expectation though firm export demand for oil meal limited the downside. In the Indore spot market on Friday soyoil was down 1.65 rupees at 641.45 rupees while soybean dropped by 21 rupees to 2 419 rupees per 100 kg. In futures market NCDEX February soybean prices plunged to Rs.2448 down by 3.65% per cent while March Soybean prices fell from Rs 2591 to Rs.2483 a fall of 4.09%.
Feb soyoil prices fell by 2.24% to 653 while Soyoil March declined by 1.92% to 661 after hitting a high of 679.75. India s oil meal export jumped 94 percent in December from a year earlier its sixth straight monthly rise on robust demand from traditional buyers in Japan Vietnam and Indonesia data from a leading trade body showed. As per Agricultural Consultancy Celeres South America s soybean production estimates for 2010 11 was lower to 125.3 million metric tons down 6.3% as compared to last year. Mainly due to sharp decline of Argentina s soybean production estimates as dry weather concerned. Argentina s output this year will reach 47 million tons almost 14% below the record 54.5 million output of 2009 10 because of lack of rain in early stages of growing the corp. (To get regular market updates and analysis on Indian oilseeds edible oil industry subscribe to Commodity Online Info Service) Major Indices Closing Data for Friday 29 st January 2011 Percentage Change Dow Jones 11823.70 1.32 MCX COMDEX 3247.15 1.52 BSE Sensex 18 395.97 3.80 NSE 5 512.15 4.19 Continuous Commodity Index (CCI) 642.08 0.47 Reuters Jeffrey CRB Index 335.44 0.43 Compiled by Commodity Online Info Service Precious Metals Gold futures jumped this weekend after data showed the U.S. economy expanded in the fourth quarter though at a slightly slower pace than expected and on firm demand.
On Friday Gold futures for April delivery rose US$21.90 or 1.7 percent to settle at US$1 341.70 an ounce on the Comex in New York. Among other precious metals Silver futures for March delivery rose 88.8 cents or 3.3 percent to US$27.919 an ounce on the Comex the biggest gain since Dec. 28. This week the price climbed 1.8 percent the first gain this month. Palladium futures for March delivery rose US$3.50 or 0.4 percent to US$817 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Platinum futures for April delivery climbed US$1.50 to US$1 805 an ounce. MCX February Gold Futures opened in the week at Rs.20081and closed at Rs.19227 a declined of 4.25%. MCX Silver March rose by 0.41% to Rs 42 999 after hitting a high of 43 350. Crude Oil Crude oil surged this week as unrest in Egypt raised concern that protests would spread to major oil producing parts of the Middle East. On Friday oil for March delivery increased US$3.70 to settle at US$89.34 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The contract has risen 0.3 percent this week. Brent crude for March delivery rose US$2.03 or 2.1 percent to US$99.42 a barrel on the London based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Oil rose even as OPEC output climbed 210 000 barrels or 0.7 percent to an average 29.395 million barrels a day in January the highest level since December 2008 according to a Bloomberg News producers and analysts. The increase was led by gains in Iraq and Saudi Arabia. At MCX Crude oil February contract gained from Rs.4097 to Rs.4117 up by 0.48per cent after hitting a high of 4137 whereas the March contract zoomed by 1.32 per cent to Rs.4237. Base Metals In global market copper rose this weekend after a report showed that the economy accelerated in the U.S. Other metals like aluminium lead nickel and zinc also gained this week. Indian copper futures also gained this week tracking global market. On Friday copper futures for March delivery climbed 3.45 cents or 0.8 percent to close at US$4.373 a pound on the Comex in New York. The most active contract rose 1.5 percent this week. On the London Metal Exchange copper for delivery in three months advanced US$89 or 0.9 percent to US$9 530 a ton (US$4.32 a pound).
At MCX Copper February contract rose from Rs 438.30 to Rs 441.55 levels higher by 0.74per cent. Gold futures jumped this weekend after data showed the U.S. economy expanded in the fourth quarter though at a slightly slower pace than expected and on firm demand. On Friday Gold futures for April delivery rose US$21.90 or 1.7 percent to settle at US$1 341.70 an ounce on the Comex in New York. Among other precious metals Silver futures for March delivery rose 88.8 cents or 3.3 percent to US$27.919 an ounce on the Comex the biggest gain since Dec. 28. This week the price climbed 1.8 percent the first gain this month. Palladium futures for March delivery rose US$3.50 or 0.4 percent to US$817 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Platinum futures for April delivery climbed US$1.50 to US$1 805 an ounce. MCX February Gold Futures opened in the week at Rs.20081and closed at Rs.19227 a declined of 4.25%.
MCX Silver March rose by 0.41% to Rs 42999 after hitting a high of 43350. Crude oil surged this week as unrest in Egypt raised concern that protests would spread to major oil producing parts of the Middle East. On Friday oil for March delivery increased US$3.70 to settle at US$89.34 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract has risen 0.3 percent this week. Brent crude for March delivery rose US$2.03 or 2.1 percent to US$99.42 a barrel on the London based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Oil rose even as OPEC output climbed 210 000 barrels or 0.7 percent to an average 29.395 million barrels a day in January the highest level since December 2008 according to a Bloomberg News producers and analysts. The increase was led by gains in Iraq and Saudi Arabia.
At MCX Crude oil February contract gained from Rs.4097 to Rs.4117 up by 0.48per cent after hitting a high of 4137 whereas the March contract zoomed by 1.32 per cent to Rs.4237. In global market copper rose this weekend after a report showed that the economy accelerated in the U.S. Other metals like aluminium lead nickel and zinc also gained this week. Indian copper futures also gained this week tracking global market. On Friday copper futures for March delivery climbed 3.45 cents or 0.8 percent to close at US$4.373 a pound on the Comex in New York. The most active contract rose 1.5 percent this week. On the London Metal Exchange copper for delivery in three months advanced US$89 or 0.9 percent to US$9530 a ton (US$4.32 a pound). At MCX Copper February contract rose from Rs 438.30 to Rs 441.55 levels higher by 0.74per cent.
