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MW: Oil rebounds, with Brent set for biggest monthly gain since 2009
 
Crude-oil futures rebounded Friday, with Brent crude set for its biggest monthly gain in nearly six years, ahead of U.S. rig-count data due later in the trading day, and Chinese official manufacturing numbers expected over the weekend.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in April CLJ5, +1.72% rose $1.07, or 2.3%, to $49.24 a barrel in the Globex electronic session. April Brent crude LCOJ5, +1.90% on London’s ICE Futures exchange rose $1.26, or 2.1%, to $61.31 a barrel.

Oil bounced back after dropping sharply in the last trading session, with Brent crude better supported than Nymex West Texas Intermediate, but prices are likely to remain volatile in the near-term.

The premium of Brent crude to Nymex WTI crude remains wide at almost $12 a barrel, its widest in more than a year. On a monthly basis, Brent is headed for a gain of nearly 14% for the active April contract, the biggest monthly gain for an active monthly contract since May 2009, when Brent tacked on nearly 29%.

This week’s U.S. rig-count data will be released by oil-field-services firm Baker Hughes Inc. later Friday.

“It is pretty obvious that a fall in rig count does not translate immediately to a drop in oil output. But both the time lag as well as the extent to which a declining rig figure translates into lower production, are tricky to project,” JBC Energy said in a report.

Earlier Friday, data showed Japan’s industrial production rose 4.0% in January, helped by a weaker yen and rising exports, but the country’s personal consumption levels remained weak.
Eyes on China: China’s official Manufacturing PMI numbers are expected over the weekend, and market observers expect it to stay below the threshold of 50. A number above 50 would indicate an expansion.

China and Japan are two of the largest oil consumers in Asia, but slow economic growth has affected oil demand growth in both countries.

Japan’s TOCOM crude oil prices, based on the purchase price for Middle Eastern crude, is expected to stay at a discount to Brent crude as Mideast oil producers keep prices low to retain market share in the Asian market, Business Monitor International said in a report.

“This price war could become more aggressive and extended particularly if refinery strikes in the U.S. are prolonged,” BMI said.

Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock for March RBH5, +1.65% — the benchmark gasoline contract — rose 3 cents, or 1.7%, to $1.736 a gallon.

ICE gasoil for March changed hands at $587.75 a metric ton, up $2 from Thursday’s settlement.

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