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MW: Oil prices take a hit as dollar surges
 
Crude-oil futures fell sharply on Tuesday as the dollar rallied and analysts spoke of headwinds for Morgan Stanley.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in July CLN5, -1.51% slid $1.30, or 2.2%, to $58.41 a barrel on the Globex electronic session. July Brent crude LCON5, -1.54% on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell $1.12, or 1.7%, to $64.38 a barrel.

The dollar surged across rival currencies as investors weighed up comments from Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen and Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer, which were largely perceived as hawkish. And analysts alsospoke of headwinds for oil prices. The dollar USDJPY, +1.39% broke above ÂĄ123 for the first time in nearly 8 years.

“Oil will need to overcome a growing list of near-term headwinds to continue its recovery. In contrast to the past 2 months, renewed U.S. dollar appreciation weighed on oil last week,” Morgan Stanley analysts said, adding that the market is also being pressured by several other factors.

These include neutral-to-bullish speculative positioning, growing OPEC supply with Saudi and Iraqi production touching record levels, underappreciated risk of Iranian supply, and some signs of stress in physical markets.

Investors have been on the sidelines ahead of the meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on June 5 in Vienna, as they hold out for indications of a supply response from Saudi Arabia and other key oil producers.
This OPEC meeting is likely to be one of the most contentious ones given the likelihood for a cohesive call from high-cost OPEC producers for higher oil prices to recover fiscal costs, economist Barnabas Gan at Singapore’s OCBC Bank said.

“However, we continue to expect OPEC to remain steadfast to their call for maintaining the production quota at its current 30 million barrels a day,” Mr. Gan said. He said OPEC’s tone will have a fundamental impact on crude oil prices for the rest of the year, and any surprise quota reduction will see a sharp knee-jerk reaction in oil prices.

“Both supply and demand factors for crude oil have remained unchanged, especially in the short term. We believe a major shift could come next week during the OPEC meeting,” analyst Daniel Ang at Phillip Futures said.

In the absence of market cues recent fluctuations in oil prices have been due to changes in the U.S. dollar, which should continue influencing prices this week especially with concerns of the Greek debt default and expectations of a U.S. rate hike later this year.

Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock for June RBN5, -1.02% — the benchmark gasoline contract — fell 2.8% to $2.033 a gallon, while June diesel traded at $1.9621, 96 points higher. Natural gas futures NGN15, -2.54% fell 2 cents, or 1%, to $2.836 per million British thermal units.

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