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BLBG: Stocks Climb With Pound Before Brexit Vote as Italian Bonds Gain
 
Pound rises third time in four sessions; copper gains
Betting odds suggest U.K. to stick with EU after referendum
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Global equities advanced and the pound strengthened toward a five-month high a day before Britons vote on membership in the European Union. Italian and Spanish government bonds rose.
The MSCI All-Country World Index gained for a fourth day as bookmakers’ odds implied there’s only about a one-in-four chance that Britons will opt to leave the EU in Thursday’s referendum. Sterling rose and U.K. stocks advanced in above average trading, while the amount of shares changing hands in most other major European equity markets was less than average. Copper and zinc led industrial metals higher.
Global stocks have climbed from a one-month low last week as odds of a so-called Brexit fell at betting shops after the murder of a U.K. lawmaker who favored staying in the EU on Thursday. The implied chance of a leave vote dropped to about 25 percent from 43 percent a week ago. Still, opinion polls suggesting the vote is too close to call is moderating investor sentiment following warnings from central bankers, including Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, that a victory for the "Leave" camp would destabilize financial markets around the world.
“‘Remain’ is not completely priced in as the costs of a ‘Leave’ could be quite large,” said Daniel Murray, head of research at EFG Asset Management in London, which oversees about $12 billion in assets. “It’s clear that betting odds are skewed towards remain at the moment, which is the main data the market will be moving on until there is a clear outcome.”
For a wrap-up of Brexit referendum coverage, including the latest polls, click here.
To follow our referendum night live blog, click here.
Stocks
The MSCI AC World Index added 0.2 percent as of 8:16 a.m. in New York. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.6 percent, extending the biggest three-day advance since August yesterday. The FTSE 100 Index of U.K. stocks jumped 0.8 percent in the fourth day of gains, with trading volumes 14 percent higher than the 30-day average.
Merlin Properties Socimi SA gained 3.6 percent after agreeing to a merger with Metrovacesa SA to create the largest Spanish property rental group.
Futures on the S&P 500 rose 0.1 percent, after the U.S. index closed higher in a zigzag session Tuesday. Adobe Systems Inc. fell 4.5 percent in pre-market New York trading after forecasting revenue in the current quarter that may miss analysts’ estimates amid slowing momentum for its cloud-based products.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 0.6 percent, following a 3.2 percent jump over the last three days. Benchmarks in South Africa and the Czech Republic advanced more than 1 percent while the Shanghai Composite Index climbed 0.9 percent.
Currencies
Sterling appreciated 0.3 percent to $1.4689, after reaching a five-month high of $1.4783 on Tuesday. It’s jumped 3.3 percent over the past five sessions.
Since British lawmaker Jo Cox’s murder last week “a fair bit of repricing has occurred in the pound on the back of the shift in polls that were earlier clearly favoring Leave,” said Rodrigo Catril, a currency strategist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Sydney. "The pound will definitely be volatile ahead of the vote.”
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3 percent, after snapping a four-day losing streak on Tuesday. The yen climbed 0.3 percent to 104.40 versus the greenback, extending this month’s advance to about 6 percent. The Australian and New Zealand dollars appreciated more than 0.5 percent.
Eastern European currencies led gains in emerging markets, with Poland’s zloty rising 0.4 percent versus the euro and 0.8 percent per dollar.
Commodities
Copper rose 0.9 percent and zinc climbed 1.3 percent in London. Gold was little changed, after sliding 2.4 percent over the last two days.
Crude oil increased 0.2 percent to $49.95 a barrel in New York. Government data Wednesday is forecast to show supplies slid by 1.5 million barrels, slipping for a fifth week while still more than 100 million barrels above the five-year average.
“The oil price will probably continue to labor around this $45 to $50 a barrel area for some time,” David Lennox, an analyst at Fat Prophets in Sydney, said by phone. “Demand is still under question. Inventories are declining, but they’re still large and will cap any significant rally.”
Corn rose 0.4 percent in Chicago following a 5.7 percent slide in the last session that marked the contract’s steepest drop since it began trading in December 2013. Prices dropped on Tuesday amid an improving supply outlook for the U.S. and Brazil, the world’s top exporters.
Bonds
Italy’s 10-year bond yield fell two basis points to 1.43 percent and the rate on similar-maturity Spanish bonds also slid two basis points, to 1.49 percent.
The yield on Germany’s 10-year bond was little changed at 0.06 percent on Wednesday. The nation also sold 30-year bonds to yield 0.65 percent, the lowest on record.
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