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BLBG: U.S. Stock Futures Pare Gains, Dollar Rises Amid Sales Data
 
Philadelphia Fed index beats forecasts; retail sales miss
Bank of England holds rates, says could still cut this year
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U.S. equity-index futures pared gains while the dollar advanced as investors parsed economic data for indications of the strength of the world’s biggest economy and the trajectory of interest rates before next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. The pound fell as the Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged.
Contracts on the S&P 500 Index rose 0.2 percent after a measure of business confidence surged, offsetting disappointing retail sales data. The greenback rose against its major peers after initially turning lower on the data. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index halted a five-day losing streak. Sterling fell after the BOE indicated there’s still a chance of another rate cut this year. Oil rebounded but remained under $44 a barrel after a two-day slump.
About $2 trillion has been wiped off the value of global equities over the past week as anxiety over the oil market coincided with signs major central banks were preparing to recalibrate monetary policy. While the odds of a U.S. interest-rate hike on Sept. 21 are 20 percent, the probability is 52 percent for a move this year. Prospects may be swayed after data showed sales at U.S. retailers dropped more than forecast in August. U.K. policy makers maintained the BOE’s asset-purchase target at 435 billion pounds ($574 billion).
“Markets are at the mercy of central banks but there’s a bit of a problem regarding credibility,” said Thomas Thygesen, SEB AB’s head of cross-asset strategy in Copenhagen. “Until we get a true picture of where global monetary policy is headed, markets can’t really pick a direction.”
Stocks
Futures on the S&P 500 Index gained 0.2 percent at 8:55 a.m. in New York, after the underlying benchmark retreated 0.1 percent on Wednesday.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.3 percent. Siemens climbed 1.6 percent after Chief Executive Officer Joe Kaeser said Europe’s biggest engineering company may beat its earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending this month
Lenders rebounded after their worst three-day drop in two months, with those in Italy, Spain and Portugal among the biggest gainers. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index climbed 0.6 percent after the BOE decision.
Hennes & Mauritz AB declined 3.6 percent after the Swedish fashion retailer’s August sales missed estimates because of hot weather. Next Plc dropped 4.6 percent after warning that the current quarter will be its toughest this year and 2017 sales will be hurt by Brexit-induced price increases.
Electricite de France SA fell 1.5 percent after the U.K. government approved its plan to build two nuclear reactors for 18 billion pounds in southwest England.
Energy producers were among the worst performers in the index, with Eni SpA, Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Total SA weighing the heaviest, as oil traded below $44 a barrel.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.3 percent. Japan’s Topix index lost ground for the seventh day in a row, led by declines in real-estate shares.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 0.6 percent, trimming its weekly loss to 3.2 percent ahead of a holiday in the city on Friday. A Bloomberg measure tracking Macau casino stocks jumped as much as 5.5 percent amid optimism Chinese Premier Li Keqiang will announce supportive policies during an October visit to the city.
Indonesian and Philippines shares also gained, with the exchange in Manila reversing losses in the final moments of trading to close up 2.2 percent. Indonesian shares gained the most in six weeks after the tax office said it collected 21.3 trillion rupiah ($1.6 billion) in revenue from tax amnesty.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a gauge of the greenback against 10 major peers, fell 0.1 percent.
Britain’s pound slipped 0.2 percent to $1.3209 as BOE policy makers indicated there’s still a chance of another rate cut this year as they assess the potential longer-term fallout from Britain’s decision to leave the European Union.
Japan’s yen was little changed at 102.32 per dollar. Morgan Stanley said the Bank of Japan will probably cut the rate on some bank reserves to minus 0.2 percent from minus 0.1 percent at next week’s meeting. Kyodo News reported Wednesday that such a move will be considered by the BOJ, while a Nikkei newspaper article said that the central bank was exploring a deeper foray into negative rates to stoke inflation.
The euro rose 0.1 percent to $1.1258, even as a report confirmed that inflation stayed well below the European Central Bank’s goal last month, and as Governing Council member Klaas Knot said the institution’s quantitative easing program will be maintained until the end of 2020 as maturing debt is reinvested.
Commodities
Crude oil traded at $43.83 a barrel following a two-day slide of almost 6 percent. Libya and Nigeria, two OPEC members whose supplies have been crushed by domestic conflicts, are preparing to add hundreds of thousands of barrels to world markets within weeks. U.S. data showed crude stockpiles fell 559,000 barrels last week, compared with a 4 million gain forecast in a Bloomberg survey.
“The market is getting a little more conservative about when the balance will return and prices are adjusting to that,” said Ric Spooner, chief market analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney. “We have moderating demand combined with the possibility of increased supplies from Libya and Nigeria. There is also the potential for non-OPEC output to start increasing.”
Bonds
The yield on U.S. Treasuries due in a decade fell one basis point to 1.69, after falling three basis points the previous day. Thirty-year yields rose one basis point to 2.46 percent. The spread between the two securities reached the widest in more than six weeks on Wednesday.
Traders have been favoring shorter-dated notes, which tend to be influenced more by the prospect of policy changes from central banks, on confidence that the Fed will keep interest rates on hold, at least through next week’s policy meeting. Securities with longer due dates have come under pressure after a selloff in Japan’s 30-year debt before next week’s BOJ meeting.
Yields rose across the euro area as Spain and France sold bonds. Germany’s benchmark 10-year bond yield increased one basis point to 0.028 percent. Yields on similar-maturity French bonds also rose one basis point, to 0.32 percent, and Spain’s were one basis point lower at 1.05 percent.
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