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BLBG : Oil Trades Below $69 as Refiners May Cut Output on Supply Gain
 
Sept. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil traded below $69 a barrel on speculation U.S. refiners may cut operating rates after fuel stockpiles reached a 26-year high.

The country’s supplies of distillate fuel, which includes diesel and heating fuel, probably rose for a fourth week from the highest since 1983, according to a Bloomberg News survey before an Energy Department report tomorrow. U.S. crude oil inventories probably fell last week as refineries bought fewer cargoes before idling plants for seasonal maintenance.

“People are looking more at fundamentals, the supply- demand balance,” said Tetsu Emori, a commodity fund manager at Astmax Co. Ltd. in Tokyo. “Crude is still moving between $65 and $75, there’s no momentum at the moment.”

Crude oil for October delivery was at $68.70 a barrel, down 16 cents, at 12:34 p.m. in Singapore in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Yesterday, the contract fell to $68.86, the lowest settlement since Sept. 4. Futures have gained 55 percent this year.

Fuel stockpiles in the world’s biggest energy users including the U.S. and Japan have risen as the global recession sapped demand. Refiners are cutting output to boost processing profit as consumption slows with the end of the peak U.S. driving period last week.

“As soon as the gasoline demand season is over, we should be looking at higher inventories,” Emori said. “That’s quite a bearish factor for the crude oil market.”

Crude tumbled to $32.40 a barrel in December, a four-year low, after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. on Sept. 15, 2008, triggered a global financial crisis that sapped energy consumption.

“In the sense that the collapse of Lehman precipitated a further deepening of the financial crisis, it has certainly affected oil pricing,” said Victor Shum, a senior principal at Purvin & Gertz Inc. in Singapore. “And the collapse also affected trading at other banks.”

Rising Stockpiles

U.S. stockpiles of distillate may have gained 1.5 million barrels from 165.6 million in the week to Sept. 11, according to the median of 11 estimates from analysts.

Gasoline inventories probably climbed 700,000 barrels from 207.2 million previously, the survey showed. Refineries may have operated at 86.7 percent of capacity last week, a drop of 0.5 percentage point.

Commercially held U.S. crude oil inventories likely declined 2.5 million barrels from 337.5 million, according to the median of survey responses.

The Energy Department is scheduled to release its Weekly Petroleum Status Report tomorrow. The industry-funded American Petroleum Institute will put out its own data at 5:30 p.m. in Washington today.

“We will be looking for some usual Tuesday price consolidation with the weekly API and EIA stats likely to influence market direction during the last half of this week,” Jim Ritterbusch, president at trading adviser Ritterbusch &Associates in Galena, Illinois, said in a note yesterday.

Cease-Fire Ending

The main militant group in Nigeria said it will end its 60- day cease-fire today as it threatened to resume sabotage attacks “with utmost zeal.”

The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, or MEND, which seeks more local control of the delta’s oil wealth, declared a unilateral cease-fire July 15 after the government freed its leader, Henry Okah, who was on trial for treason. MEND rejected a government amnesty program, saying it failed to address its political demands.

MEND spokesman Jomo Gbomo said in an e-mail he wouldn’t “speculate” when attacks may resume. Armed attacks targeting the oil industry have cut more than 20 percent of Nigeria’s oil exports since 2006 and deterred new investments. The country vies with Angola as Africa’s top oil producer and is the fifth- largest source of U.S. oil imports.

Brent crude oil for October settlement on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange traded at $67.05 a barrel, down 39 cents, at 12:28 p.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract fell 0.4 percent to settle at $67.44, the lowest in a week.

The October contract expires today. The more active November futures were at $68.08 a barrel, down 29 cents, at 12:28 p.m. Singapore time.
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