By Madelene Pearson Oct. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Wheat production in Australia, the world’s fourth-largest exporter, may meet a government forecast after rainfall last month, two analysts said. South Australia, Victoria, southwest Western Australia and parts of northern New South Wales had above-average rain over most growing areas in September, according to the Bureau of Meteorology. Rain in September is needed to boost yields ahead of the harvest starting this month. “That’s as good as spread of rain that we’ve had for a number of seasons,” Frank Drum, agribusiness economist with National Australia Bank Ltd., said from Melbourne. Production may be closer to 23 million tons, he said. Wheat output may reach a four-year high of 22.7 million metric tons, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics said last month. That will spur the biggest exports since 2005-2006, at a time when the world’s second-largest harvest is weighing on prices. Wheat futures for December delivery fell 0.7 percent to $4.4975 a bushel at 10:37 a.m. Sydney time in after-hours electronic trading on the Chicago Board of Trade. The commodity touched the lowest price since April 2007 this week and is down 26 percent this year. “We are certainly getting closer to being able to lock in a crop of above 22 million tons,” Luke Mathews, agri-commodity strategist with Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said from Sydney. “The ample supplies that we’ve got is certainly going to weigh on near-term wheat prices.” Favorable Weather Commonwealth Bank is predicting a wheat crop of 22.2 million tons and the government’s forecast of 22.7 million tons is possible with continued favorable weather, Mathews said. “Australia is going to have an exportable surplus of wheat again this year, matching if not exceeding what was available last year,” Mathews said. Victoria had the most rainfall in September in nine years, while South Australian agricultural areas got the most in eight years, according to the weather bureau. Rainfall over parts of the Mallee region and southeast South Australia was as much as 50 percent above average for September, it said. “South Australia is probably the one that has benefited the most and is looking at the biggest increase in production this year,” National Australia Bank’s Drum said. “Everyone you speak to is suggesting it will be a very big harvest there.”

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