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P I : Gold Yet To Test Record Highs Against Other Currencies, Including Rand And Australian Dollar
 
Gold's headline grabbing performance, with a succession of new record high fixes, comes at a time when the US dollar is under pressure and of course a good part of the investment and speculative activity that has driven prices higher has been predicated on concerns over the future of the greenback.

Such speculation comes not just from the prospects for the efficacy of the US' Exit Strategy and bloated national balance sheets in general, but is exacerbated by the associated debate over the dollar's role in the international reserve system, not to mention rumours of changes in oil pricing techniques. The dollar's heavyweight position in the international system becomes almost self-fulfilling and it is hardly likely to cede superiority to any other currency in the foreseeable future. Economic and market dynamics, however, do suggest that a further deterioration in the dollar's international value is on the horizon and this is a primary driver behind gold price rises.

Amid all the fanfare that has surrounded gold's new record prices it is worth looking at what it has done in other currencies - and it is not, quite, at a universal record as the Australian and South African producers will be only too prepared to testify. As the accompanying chart shows, the price in South African rand, which in mid-October is just over R252,000/kg, is 23% off its high, which was registered in March 2009. The Australian price is down 20% from its February 2009 high, although in Canadian dollars, which obviously have a reasonably close relationship with their US brethren, the decline has been just 6%.

The average South African price for the second half-year to date is 11% down on the average for the first half of this year, although 7% higher than the average for the whole of 2008. In Australian dollars the half-year to date has averaged 10% less than the first half of this year, but is 15% up on the whole of last year. The Canadian average since the start of July is down by just 3½% on the first half of this year and up by 17% on the 2008 average.So while the price may be off its highs it is nevertheless showing a reasonably robust performance in the producer currencies. Among the consumers the price performance has been stronger and is obviously a key driver behind the very sluggish performance of the jewellery industry in most of the world this year (with China the clear exception).

The major gold consuming nations include China, India, the US, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, which between them accounted for 55% of combined jewellery and investment product demand in the second quarter of this year (figures from the World Gold Council, compiled independently by GFMS Ltd). Their average market share since the start of the year 2000 has been close to this level at 54% of total. So far, gold has reached record levels, among the currencies of these major consumers, in only the dollar, the Indian rupee and in the Saudi Riyal. In renminbi the price is some 5% off the highs, which was registered in April 2008. In Turkish Lire it is 7% off the top, which was posted in March of this year. The picture is similar in the major international currencies, with gold 8% off its highs in euro and yen, which were scored in February of this year and July 2008 respectively, while it is down by 6% in Swiss francs and the G6 trade-weighted dollars.Clearly, with the exception of some of the producer currencies, gold is close to records, if not actually clearing old highs. The next question to be answered is whether the market's fundamentals are strong enough for it to post new records in all currencies.
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