Crude oil’s rise beyond the one-year high reached today may be checked by a resistance level first encountered three years ago, according to technical analysis by consultants Petromatrix GmbH. Crude climbed to $75.15 a barrel in New York today, its highest price since last October. The rally may dissipate as it approaches $78.40, the highest price reached in 2006, the energy consultant said. The likelihood of crude breaking this threshold will be determined by movements in the U.S. dollar, it added. “This stands out as the next resistance level,” Petromatrix Managing Director Olivier Jakob said in an interview from Zug, Switzerland. “It was the high in 2006, and also strong resistance in 2007. When it was broken in 2007, crude moved to the next level, which was $100.” Oil rose to a then-record of $78.40 a barrel on July 14, 2006 as conflict between Israel and Hezbollah stoked concern Middle East crude exports might be disrupted. In 2007, seven months of price gains snapped after oil reached $78.77 on Aug. 1, and the commodity lost about $9 during the rest of that month before resuming its upward path. “As you go above $75 there’s no reference point in 2009, and 2008 was something of a special market,” Jakob added. “So if you go back in time, you come to $78.40.” If crude exceeds $78.40, this will open the way for the next resistance level at $80 and then a more “significant” target at $85 a barrel, Jakob said. “Eighty is psychologically important, it’s a big, round number, but there’s nothing significant on the charts,” Jakob said. “Above that the next significant resistance is $85. But on the dollar.” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. yesterday maintained its forecast for crude oil to reach $85 a barrel by the end of this year on “modest” improvements in global demand in the fourth quarter.

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