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BLBG: Oil in ‘Uptrend’ as Prices Remain Above $70: Technical Analysis
 
By Yee Kai Pin

Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil remains in an uptrend even if the market unwinds gains made this month and falls back toward $70 a barrel, according to an analysis of price charts by National Australia Bank Ltd.

Oil traded below $80 a barrel for a third day today as traders exited bets on higher prices amid a stronger dollar and declining stock markets. While a further decline is possible, a reversal of the four-week rally “is not cut and dried yet,” said Sydney-based technical analyst, Gordon Manning.

“The tree was shaken but serious damage hasn’t been done yet,” he said in a telephone interview. “The pattern is still going to be very positive while we’re above $70. If oil comes back to $70 it’s still going to look fine.”

Crude oil reached a one-year high of $82 a barrel on Oct. 21 before falling on concern the rally may have been overdone. The dollar’s advance also damped the investment appeal of commodities. The contract for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange was at $79.45 a barrel, down 10 cents, at 11 a.m. Singapore time. Futures have gained 78 percent this year.

Oil may “have another good look at $70,” Manning said. “If we are going to see a pullback in the stock market and a rally in the U.S. dollar, oil will pull back.”

Manning, who correctly predicted on Sept. 30 that oil will rise above $70 a barrel, pegged his targets for price support at $69.77 and $66.10 a barrel in a weekly note on Oct. 26. He also maintained his call for the market to rise to between $88 and $100 a barrel over the long term.

Oil last traded at $88 a barrel in October last year. That’s about halfway between the descent from an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel in July last year to a four-year low of $32.40 a barrel in December.

“Short term, you wouldn’t be rushing out to buy,” Manning said. “You can probably afford to sit and just see what sort of a pullback we get.”

Source