BEIJING, Nov. 2, 2009 (Xinhua News Agency) -- Despite expectations for possible ease monetary policies all over the world in the fourth quarter, the recovering economy and weak U.S. dollar will still be key factors to prop stock market and commodity market as well. The stock indices slid across the world bourses last week (October 26-30) and in the meantime the U.S. dollar rebounded to weigh on commodities market that is led by crude oil and copper. However, the general trend that world economy is warming up and the U.S. dollar continues depreciating hasn't changed. The October economic data show that the macro economy both in China and abroad were growing steadily, which will give fundamental support to commodities market. However, as commodities stocks are very large and need to be absorbed for some time, commodities prices will be in a band of corrections in a short term. Last week saw crude prices on New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) drop below 80 U.S. dollars. Currently, oil imports from the U.S. fail to have strong growth momentum, but the oil demand from China is picking up quickly. What's more, the major international petroleum organizations have adjusted up world crude oil demand for this year and the next, which has shored up market confidence. Technical analysis shows that crude oil price needs to make correction at around 80 U.S. dollars per barrel, but will meet support at 75 U.S. dollars. Fuel oil futures traded on China's Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) can hardly rebound in short time but may rise in the following period given the drive from crude oil. Under pressure from output and stocks, rebar futures on the SHFE lack fundamental support for a rally in a short term. China's daily crude steel output hit a record high of 1.69 million tons in September. By the end of October, China's steel stocks had approached the yearly high of 12 million tons, surging 50 percent over the same period of last year and up 2.74 percent over the previous month. However, rebar prices have limited to fall with support from the production cost. China's iron ore imports made a record of 64.55 million tons in September, jumping 65 percent year on year, and the imports in January-September came to 469 million tons, higher than those of last year. Boosted by rising crude oil prices and strong Chinese imports, Baltic Dry Index (BDI), an index that measures marine transportation cost, will rise in the following period. Also with stock pressure, China's farm produce futures can hardly put in good performance in a short- or mid-term. But as stocks are gradually digested, farm produce prices will start rising. Data from the General Administration of Customs show that China's soybean imports reached 2.75 million tons in September, the lowest level in the past 11 months, down 12 percent from August.

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