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BLBG: Copper Falls on Dollar, Speculation of Chinese Demand Weakness
 
By Anna Stablum

Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Copper fell in London as the dollar rebounded and on speculation demand is weakening in China, the world’s largest metals user.

The Dollar Index, a six-currency gauge of the greenback’s performance, rose as much as 0.3 percent after falling to the lowest level since August 2008 yesterday. A stronger U.S. currency makes dollar-priced metals more expensive to those with other monies. Stockpiles monitored by the London Metal Exchange are headed for an 18th weekly increase. Copper may be re- exported from China because there are so few buyers, according to Xi’an Maike Metal International Group.

“There are some worries that there has been a fair amount of metal sitting around, which may just act as a near-term drag in terms of pricing,” Charles Kernot, an analyst at Evolution Securities Ltd. in London, said by phone. “We are going into a little bit of a quiet period around the turn of the year, so it may well be the case that the price may just drift off.”

Copper for three-month delivery fell $40, or 0.6 percent, to $6,499 a metric ton on the LME at 10:07 a.m. local time. December-delivery copper eased 0.7 percent to $2.949 a pound on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex division.

The metal has more than doubled this year, bolstered by a weaker dollar, down 7.6 percent this year, and record first-half imports by China.

“We do not expect a continuation of the restocking event that dominated the copper market in 2009,” Daniel Brebner, an analyst at Deutsche Bank AG in London, wrote in a report dated yesterday. “Net copper imports next year could fall about 30 percent.”

Chinese Re-Exports

The decline may weigh on prices “well into mid-2010,” Brebner said. The long-term forecast from 2013 was raised to $2 a pound ($4,409 a ton) from $1.75 previously, he said.

Copper stockpiles held in duty-free warehouses in China may be re-exported after surging to as much as 350,000 tons from almost zero at the start of the year, according to Xi’an Maike.

“We can hardly find buyers for refined copper,” said Luo Shengzhang, general manager of the copper department. The company ranks among country’s three biggest importers, according to the executive. “China’s got to export some copper from now and next year,” Luo said in an interview.

In Shanghai, copper stockpiles expanded 1,440 tons, or 1.4 percent, to 104,275 tons last week, the highest level since April 2004, according to data from the Shanghai exchange.

Downside Risk

If China has “excess metal that they don’t think they need anymore, and the price is attractive in comparison to what they paid for it, then clearly that is a downside risk in terms of international pricing,” Evolution’s Kernot said.

Inventories of copper in LME-monitored warehouses rose 1.2 percent to 394,150 tons today, the highest since May 6. Metal booked for delivery fell 2.4 percent to 2,025 tons, or 0.5 percent of LME copper inventories, down from 21 percent in May.

“There is not a lot of expectation that metal will come out of the warehouse,” Kernot said.

Among other LME metals for three-month delivery, nickel fell 2.2 percent to $17,050 a ton, after reaching an intraday low of $16,865, the lowest since Sept. 29.

Aluminum fell 0.1 percent to $1,950 a ton, zinc eased 0.7 percent to $2,144 a ton and lead shed 1.9 percent to $2,257.5 a ton.

Source