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BLBG: Oil Rises From One-Month Low on Weaker Dollar, Japan’s Economy
 
By Alexander Kwiatkowski

Nov. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Oil rose from a one-month low as the dollar weakened and Japan’s economy expanded at the fastest pace in more than two years, boosting confidence about the strength of the global recovery.

Oil rose as the dollar fell, increasing the investments in commodities and pushing up the price producers must seek to maintain purchasing power. Japan’s gross domestic product rose at an annual 4.8 percent pace, more than the forecasts of all 20 economists in a Bloomberg News survey, after a 2.7 percent gain in the second quarter, government data showed today.

“For oil and the commodities, the dollar is still one of the driving factors,” said Carsten Fritsch, an analyst with Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. “This financial market news is why oil is up at the moment. We are seeing a technical rebound from sharp losses last week.”

Crude oil for December delivery rose as much as $1.21, or 1.6 percent, to $77.56 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract traded at $77.25 at 11:18 a.m. in London.

The contract fell 59 cents to $76.35 a barrel on Nov. 13, the lowest settlement since Oct. 14, after an unexpected decline in U.S. consumer confidence. Prices fell 1.4 percent last week as jobless claims in the world’s largest economy increased, fuel stockpiles rose and the nation’s refiners reduced operating rates to a 13-month low.

Weak Dollar

“There is going to be continued downward pressure on the dollar which will be supportive of prices,” said Mike Wittner, head of oil research at Societe Generale SA in London. “We are still in this range that we have been in for three weeks. There are still question marks about demand and inventories.”

Crude has gained 73 percent this year and reached a 12- month high of $82 on Oct. 21. The euro has gained about 6.4 percent over the same period, and climbed to as much as $1.4994 today from $1.4903 late in New York last week.

Brent crude for January settlement rose as much as $1.28, or 1.7 percent, to $77.59 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It fell 46 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $76.31 a barrel on Nov. 13. The December contract expired the same day, falling 47 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $75.55.

OPEC Meeting

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries won’t increase its output quotas when it meets in December, Qatar’s Energy Minister Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah told Bloomberg News in Tokyo today.

OPEC, producer of more than 40 percent of the world’s crude oil, will meet on Dec. 22 in Luanda, Angola, to discuss output targets after agreeing to leave them unchanged at the last three meetings. The group’s compliance with the production cuts slipped to 60 percent in October from 62 percent in September, it said in a report on Nov. 11.

The producer group is “happy” with prices at current levels, according to OPEC’s president, Angolan Oil Minister Jose Maria Botelho de Vasconcelos.e

Oil is at a “good level,” he said today at a conference in Abu Dhabi. “I think that the economy can recover at this price.” Even $80 a barrel “is not too high,” he said.

Production from the 11 members excluding Iraq that are bound by the targets rose by 50,000 barrels a day to 26.31 million barrels a day in October from September, according to Bloomberg data.

“I don’t think they will have any reason to change quotas,” said Wittner of Societe Generale. “They would like to keep prices where they are, that’s the bottom line.”

Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators decreased their net-long position in New York crude-oil futures in the week ended Nov. 10, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.

Net-long positions fell by 15,772 contracts, or 15 percent, from a week earlier. Overall speculative long positions, or bets prices will rise, still outnumbered short positions by 88,045 contracts on NYMEX, the Washington-based commission said in its Commitments of Traders report.

To contact the reporter on this story: Alexander Kwiatkowski in London at akwiatkowsk2@bloomberg.net; Christian Schmollinger in Singapore at christian.s@bloomberg.net.

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