U.S crude oil is expected to rise to an average of $75.40 a barrel in 2010, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday, but analysts said a deep pool of global supply would keep short-term price growth in check.
The poll of 28 analysts showed a rising consensus forecast for the seventh consecutive month.
In April of this year, the average forecast for 2010 was $65.95 a barrel.
"The worst of the recession is over, and demand will rebound slowly and gradually," said Thorsten Fischer at the Royal Bank of Scotland. "At first, ample inventories will dampen price pressures, but prices will only rise substantially once the global economy is firmly on a path toward recovery. Dollar weakness represents a significant upside risk for oil prices."
U.S. crude is expected to average $73.70 in the fourth quarter of 2009, up from $69.73 in the last poll.
U.S. crude prices have jumped by $10 a barrel since late September.
Analysts in the latest poll said U.S. crude would average $60.80 a barrel for 2009 as a whole, compared to a forecast of $60.60 in October.
Demand Growth
In a separate Reuters poll published on Tuesday, 10 top oil-tracking analysts and organizations forecast a rise in oil demand by 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2010 to 85.9 million bpd, enough to erode huge global stockpiles of crude.
Oil prices in 2009 have run a parallel course with global stock market rallies and some currency valuations, as risk appetite has worked its way back into market activity following a credit crunch, the financial crisis and widespread recession.
The dollar has been surfing a 15-month low against a basket of other major currencies, which in turn has pumped up energy prices as oil is denominated in the U.S. currency.
A weaker dollar supports oil because dollar-priced commodities become cheaper for buyers using other currencies.
U.S. light crude was trading around $76.50 on Wednesday, after data on Tuesday showed the U.S. economy grew at a slower-than-expected 2.8 percent last quarter, the Commerce Department said.
Global Overhang
Independent oil analyst Olivier Jakob at Petromatrix said the overhang of distillate stockpiles, which include heating oil and diesel, was serving to cap prices further out along the futures curve and pressure Atlantic basin refining margins.
"We expect a flat price correction in the early months of 2010 on the back of the burdensome levels of distillates floating at sea, hence lower crude oil demand...," Jakob said.
In the poll, analysts predicted an average price for U.S. crude in the first quarter of 2010 at $73.20, down from the fourth-quarter 2009 average forecast of $73.70.
Distillates in floating storage have climbed rapidly in the last seven months, from less than 30 million barrels in April to more than 97 million barrels predicted through early-December, shipping industry traders said.
Supply curbs by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries were expected to remain in effect and help to tighten the market.
OPEC meets on Dec. 22 in Angola to review its oil output policy.
Even though oil has rallied in 2009, it is far below its record high of more than $147 a barrel reached in July 2008.
