BLBG: Aluminum Global Glut to Decline 54%, Marubeni Says (Update1)
By Aya Takada
Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The global aluminum surplus will narrow by 54 percent in 2010 from this year amid an economic recovery, Japanese trading company Marubeni Corp. forecast today.
The surplus will narrow to 1.19 million metric tons from 2.57 million tons, Marubeni, Japan’s largest importer of the light metal, said in a report.
Aluminum for delivery in three months advanced to $2,166 a ton in London yesterday, the highest level since October 2008, as an economic revival improved demand for the metal used in cars and buildings. Europe’s economy emerged from the worst slump in more than six decades in the past quarter, according to data released by the statistics office in Luxembourg yesterday.
Marubeni forecast aluminum for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange will average $1,900 a ton in January to March. The price has averaged around $1,666 a ton so far this year, according to Bloomberg data.
The Chinese aluminum market will turn to a surplus of 73,000 tons next year from a deficit 83,500 tons this year, the report said.
Chinese imports of aluminum were 13 times higher this year than in 2008 as traders and manufacturers bought the metal in anticipation of demand from the government’s $586 billion stimulus spending. China’s imports of refined aluminum swelled by 1,274 percent to 1.4 million tons in the first 10 months of this year, government data showed. The nation’s exports of the metal slumped 76 percent to 15,106 tons in the period.
Chinese aluminum output will likely outpace demand by about 800,000 tons next year, the biggest surplus since 2005, Societe Generale said in a report last month.
To contact the reporter on this story: Aya Takada in Tokyo atakada2@bloomberg.net