Good morning. As the high-powered delegates struggle through the snow to the global warming conference in Copenhagen, high-powered bankers in the Southeast proudly fire up their Cayennes, Q7s and Toerags.
For once, nobody will be sneering at their Chelsea tractors as they power though the snowdrifts on their way to the station. The elation lasts until the end of the lane, where a Fiesta has skidded into a mobile canapé stall. Other drivers have tried to squeeze by but are stuck in the verge or sideways across the road. Oh dear, there is no way through.
But never mind, it's Friday. Unless you are President Obama or Grocer Jack the chances are you will not be missed if you cannot get into town today. That will certainly be the case if your work involves foreign exchange and if yesterday's experience is anything to go by. The only currency to make any sizeable move was the Swiss franc, which jumped a cent higher against the euro - and everything else - overnight on reports of a coup in Pakistan. Quite why the franc was singled out as a safe-haven is unclear but it probably has something to do with the coincidental break of technical resistance.
Except against the franc, pound sterling starts this morning within 50 ticks of Thursday's opening levels. In many cases the net movement is even less.
The pound sterling did take a half-cent hit after a weak showing for UK retail sales in November: Instead of rising by +0.5% on the month they fell by -0.3%. The effect of those poor figures was diluted a couple of hours later by a more positive reading of the retail situation by the Confederation of British Industry's Distributive Trades Survey. It was steady at +13 in December. There was added help from a survey by the Datamonitor Group that found 70% of British consumers intending to spend more than normal this Christmas.
The day's remaining data were uncontroversial. Canadian CPI inflation came in at +1.0%, slightly ahead of forecast. US jobless claims were barely different from a week ago and the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index avoided the slump suffered earlier this week by the New York measure.
Four days of seasonal inactivity suggest that today's data will have to be extraordinary if they are to get the FX market moving. The Bank of Japan's decision to keep yen interest rates at 0.1% has made no difference and nor has a near-12% fall in Japanese department store sales in the year to November. German producer prices, French business confidence and Italian industrial orders are unlikely to do the job. IFO's survey of German business confidence might do something if it is a silly number and investors will pay close attention to UK mortgage approvals and public sector borrowing. But they are the only figures with any real potential. Euroland's trade balance and Canadian wholesale sales seldom make a difference.
So well done to all who made it into work through the snow today and commiserations to those who will be forced to watch the home shopping channel and re-runs of Bob the Builder. Have a good weekend and prepare yourselves for even lower levels of excitement next week.
