BLBG: Gold May Advance as Investors Buy After Decline, Survey Shows
By Nicholas Larkin
Dec. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Gold may gain as some investors buy the metal after its “excessive” drop from a record price, a survey showed.
Eleven of 21 traders, investors and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, or 52 percent, said bullion would rise next week. Seven forecast lower prices and three were neutral. Gold for delivery in February fell 0.7 percent this week to $1,103.40 an ounce by 3:20 a.m. in New York.
Gold futures are heading for a fourth weekly decline and have dropped 10 percent since reaching a record $1,227.50 an ounce on Dec. 3. Gold tends to move inversely to the dollar, which has gained 4.2 percent against a basket of six major currencies in the period. Bullion is still up 25 percent this year and set for a ninth annual gain.
“Traders may deem the extent of the recent sell off excessive and begin tentatively buying the dips again,” said Mark O’Byrne, executive director of brokerage GoldCore Ltd. in Dublin. “Those with more long-term timeframes realize that the fundamentals driving the gold market remain sound and there will likely be buyers at these levels.”
The red bars on the attached chart are derived by subtracting the bearish forecasts from the bullish estimates, with readings below zero signaling the majority of respondents expecting a decline. The green line shows the gold price. The data shown are as of Dec. 18.
The weekly gold survey has forecast prices accurately in 169 of 293 weeks, or 58 percent of the time.
This week’s survey results: Bullish: 11 Bearish: 7 Neutral: 3
To contact the reporter on this story: Nicholas Larkin in London at nlarkin1@bloomberg.net