The dollar index traded flat ahead of the ECB press conference, however, the market had two important exceptions from two major pairs moving in opposite directions. At a time when the euro and the pound had a 40-pip range overnight, the aussie advanced as much as 90 pips to reach the highest value in 2-months. The aussie’s surge was triggered by the better than expected labor market data, released during the Asian session. The yen was the second exception, gaining 70 pips overnight. Looking ahead, the market is likely to come to slow down again ahead of the ECB Press Conference, scheduled at 08:30 EST, but usually the major pairs pick up plenty of volatility during Mr. Trichet’s Press Conference. The outlook for Eur/Usd, and the dollar index to a greater degree, is highly dependent on the outcome of the ECB Press Conference. Momentum: The dollar index went into Long mode in early December and held that trend up until January's Non-farm Payroll release. The read turned short this week, and a weekly chart close below 76.50 will be a signal that sellers have the upper hand. Elliott Wave: The dollar index traded lower recently, towards the 77.00 region, offering the chance to monitor a complex corrective pattern, shown in our blue wave IV) position. A corrective pattern seems to be a double zig-zag structure with a wave c of a wave (Y) that found the recent lows around the 76.60 region, from where an up-trend can continue. If a double zig-zag in wave IV) is already complete, then Usd should be technically bullish over the coming days, with moves towards the 78.00 zone and even higher. The fundamental picture may dictate direction in trade this week. From an Elliott wave perspective, bullish expectations remains valid so long as the market trades above the critical 75.58 support zone, which is the top area of a blue wave I). The euro (Eur/Usd 1.4520) attempted to move higher during the first part of the overnight session, but stalled the European open. Thursday’s opening price is where the pair trades, and is holding within the range of the last three days. At 08:30 EST, investors will prepare for the ECB Press Conference, which will have a strong influence on this pair. Momentum: The euro trend went Short on 3rd December, with a Long reversal setting itself this week. Elliott Wave: Eur/Usd moved higher on Wednesday as we had signaled it should, after the correction in the middle of a black wave C) leg completed. The pair hit new weekly highs at 1.4580, just 20 pips below the 1.4600 region we were looking for. After the 1.4580 high was reached, prices fell sharply towards the 1.4500 support zone (intra day reaction), which may be an indication that a top is in. A move down through 1.4450 support will confirm a bearish trend, and that a top of a corrective wave IV is in place. Overall, we are looking for the top of a complex correction in our Long, red wave IV with a double zig-zag pattern, separated by our wave (x). Once wave IV is complete it is expected that euro will drop into a short red wave V, towards the 1.4200 zone. The pound (Gbp/Usd 1.6290) is consolidating just below the 1.6300 area, near the highest value of the last month of trading. The 100-day moving average is at the 1.6300 area, which will require additional momentum to push through. The aussie (Aud/Usd 0.9295) gained 90 pips during the overnight sessions after a series of positive news reports from the Australian labor market. The pair rose as high as 0.9325, near a two month old resistance trend-line. A break above will test the 12 month high at 0.9400. The cad (Usd/Cad 1.0300) had a range of only 30 pips, and was the weakest major. The pair is expected to continue its downtrend at a slower pace, as some investors think that the BoC will intervene to devalue the Canadian dollar. In Wednesday trade, the Usd/Cad fell 90 pips after it bounced from the 1.0400 area. TheLFB Trade Plan of the Day is one of the six that are available to members on the major pairs each day, plus four Jpy based cross pairs, as well as S&P futures, oil, gold, and the dollar index. The swissy (Usd/Chf 1.0195) is struggling to break above the 50-day moving average for a third consecutive day. Such a move might come on broad dollar strength. Ahead, the swissy has a clear economic calendar, and may have the Swiss National Bank looking for ways to de-value the strength seen in Eur/Chf. The yen (Usd/Jpy 91.95) stair-stepped higher throughout the overnight session, and broke above the 20-day moving average. The move signals that the pair has entered in an uptrend once again. The next important test for this uptrend is in the 92.50 area.

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