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ENM: India on recovery path, but market to remain volatile
 
How are you scanning the markets right now, do you think this is a temporary reprieve and we are pretty much on our way down?

I do not think we can say we are on our way down. What has really happened and what we have got to see over the last four months is really our markets have been in some sort of a consolidation phase. If you look at the Sensex between 15500, 17500, we have been in that band. We are in the middle of that band today. Some amount of profit taking has come through if you look at FII numbers but in general if you look at news flow, news flow continues to be reasonably positive.

If you look at the earnings season that has just gone by, we are in the midst of, overall numbers have been in line or in some cases, better than expected if you look at auto sales numbers, if you look at cement despatch numbers most importantly as far as lead indicators, if you look at the manufacturing PMI which HSBC actually monitors very closely and publishes. Now there very clearly in January, we are looking at numbers above 57 and we were as low as 44 last January.

So very clearly business sentiment has improved. If you look at actual numbers, all pointing towards the fact that India is very clearly on a recovery path. In the interim, you have had two events as far as India is concerned, one is monetary policy, two is the budget coming up. So in this period leading up to the budget, we are going to remain in this period of volatility.

One question on what the FIIs and mutual funds have been doing year to date, FIIs selling is about 1100 odd crores ballpark figure, 1200 crores is what mutual funds have been selling, what do you make of that?

Like I was saying, it is very clearly some amount of profit booking and also we cannot forget the fact that we have got fairly large FPOs, IPOs coming up and so some amount of selling to keep funds aside for these. The other thing we cannot forget is that our market at 17000 plus were looking stretched, valuations if you look at around a trailing basis starting to look a little expensive but at 16200-16300 our market starts to look more reasonable, especially if you start to look out to 2011, we are expecting 22% earnings growth for Sensex companies.

So we will be trading at about 14.5-14.6 times forward earnings which is not unreasonable but a lot of this selling has come through largely to some extent from profit booking and getting some funds ready for the large FPOs on the sidelines. So like I said earlier, we are in this period of consolidation and any dip would be viewed as buying opportunities as well. So it is difficult to see a very significant correction continuing and at the same time, above 17000 our market starts to look a little rich, so this band is something that we are going to have to live with for a few months.
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