WSJ: OIL FUTURES Nymex Crude Inches Higher Strong Dollar Weighs
By Brian Baskin
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Crude futures rose slightly Monday, as the flight out of commodities and equities that knocked oil prices down 7.5% in the last two trading days looks to have subsided.
Light, sweet crude for March delivery recently traded 22 cents, or 0.3%, higher at $71.41 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange traded 19 cents, or 0.3%, higher at $69.78 a barrel.
Monday's meager gains extended crude's rebound Friday afternoon after briefly falling below $70 a barrel, widely seen as the lower end of a trading range that has bracketed prices since October. Prices remain nearly $6 below the Feb. 2 settlement of $77.23 a barrel.
Trading on Monday is seen still depending heavily on the dollar, which hit an eight-month high against the euro on Friday as investors sought a safe haven. The dollar strengthened on concerns that Greece and several other euro-zone economies could be overwhelmed by debt, forcing punitive fiscal policies that would curb economic growth. The Group of Seven leading nations offered no new solutions to manage the deficits at a weekend meeting, though the cost of insuring Greece's debt fell, indicating easing concerns among investors.
A stronger dollar also makes commodities priced in the U.S. currency more expensive to hold. The dollar was recently at $1.3678 to the euro, from as high as $1.3585 on Friday.
"If the dollar remains strong and the (S&P 500) doesn't recuperate, oil is going to work its way lower," said Tony Rosado, a broker with GA Global Markets in New York.
However, bargain hunters have stepped in to buy oil whenever prices have dipped below $70 a barrel in the last few months, including on Friday. Although Europe's sovereign debt issues raise questions about the health of the developed economies, rapidly increasing oil demand in emerging markets has helped to gradually reduce global supplies. U.S. oil and fuel inventories are at their lowest since March.
Even as oil prices were spiraling lower last week, the gap between monthly futures contracts was narrowing, normally a sign that traders believe supplies are tightening. March crude trades at a 34-cent discount to April, from as much as $2.50 in December.
"With stocks on a gradual move towards normal levels, the risk of a sudden price collapse should continue to decline going forward," wrote analysts with BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research.
Many analysts also see Saudi Arabia and other large producers cutting back on exports if prices fall below $70 a barrel, which would further reduce inventories.
Front-month March reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, recently traded 50 points, or 0.3%, lower at $1.8814 a gallon. March heating oil traded 37 points, or 0.2%, higher at 41.8785 a gallon.
-By Brian Baskin, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2453; brian.baskin@dowjones.com.
(Edward Welsch in Ottawa contributed to this article)