NEW YORK -- Crude futures were nearly unchanged Thursday as traders braced for Friday's oil inventory data, but took heart in an improved outlook for global oil demand by the International Energy Agency.
The inventory data, normally put out by the government on Wednesday, was pushed back to Friday after two snowstorms shut down federal offices in Washington, D.C. An industry group put out data Tuesday showing a large increase in oil inventories, leaving the oil market to chew over the numbers for days, rather than the usual hours.
"As we move through the day people will start to align their positions a little bit more toward what they're expecting for tomorrow's report," said Peter Beutel, president of the trading advisory firm Cameron Hanover. "We haven't had our normal fix of fundamental factors this week."
Light, sweet crude for March delivery recently traded 10 cents lower at $74.42 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange traded 18 cents higher at $72.72 a barrel.
During the long gap between inventory reports, the oil market has gradually moved higher as euro zone countries signaled a willingness to assist Greece, which is struggling with its public debt. Oil was one of many markets to plunge last week over concerns that spiraling deficits in several European countries would reduce economic growth. Crude futures are now about $5 a barrel higher than the intraday low hit last Friday.
On Thursday, European Union President Herman Van Rompuy told reporters that "Euro-area member states will take determined and coordinated action if needed."
In an oil market outlook that otherwise emphasized improving demand, the International Energy Agency flagged public debt in Greece and other developed economies as having the potential to "derail the recovery."
However, the IEA raised its 2010 oil demand forecast in its monthly market report, joining the U.S. Energy Information Administration, which lifted its estimate on Wednesday. The IEA expects 2010 demand to reach 86.5 million barrels a day, up 170,000 barrels from the previous outlook and 1.6 million barrels a day above last year's figure.
China is expected to provide a quarter of that growth, with developed economies seeing more modest gains. In the U.S., oil demand is down 2% from a year ago, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
The EIA report, due Friday, will offer the next glimpse at U.S. demand data, along with the long-awaited follow-up to Tuesday's American Petroleum Institute's inventory data. The API reported a 7.2-million-barrel increase in crude stocks, far more than the 1.3 million barrels a day anticipated by analysts.
Rising inventories were a weekly reminder last year that the global downturn had reduced demand far below production levels. Inventories have begun to tighten, but are still seen prone to reinflating early this year as fuel consumption lags behind the recovery in the U.S. and other developed economies.
The API also reported a 1.6-million-barrel increase in gasoline stocks, more than the 100,000-barrel forecast, while distillate inventories, including heating oil and diesel, fell 1.5 million barrels, less than the 1.8-million-barrel drop anticipated in a Dow Jones survey.
Front-month March reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, recently traded 1.06 cents, or 0.6%, lower at $1.9184 a gallon. March heating oil traded 21 points, or 0.1%, higher at $1.9490 a gallon.
