By Jae Hur Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Copper, little changed, may climb on speculation that the global economic recovery may boost demand for the industrial metal, outweighing declining imports this year by China, the world’s largest consumer. Reduced copper imports by China will be more than offset by purchases from other buyers as the global market moves into deficit, according to Macquarie Group Ltd. Sales at retailers in the U.S., the second-largest consumer of the metal, climbed in January from December, the third month-to-month gain since September, the Commerce Department said Feb. 12. “The market is still getting support from an increase in the U.S. retail sales,” said Hiroaki Hama, an analyst at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. in Tokyo. Copper for three-month delivery was little changed at $6,808.25 a metric ton at 1:50 p.m. Tokyo time after gaining as much as 0.7 percent to $6,860. The metal jumped 8.4 percent last week, the biggest weekly advance since July. May-delivery copper traded at $3.1010 a pound on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex unit after touching $3.1280. Gross domestic product in Japan, the world’s second-largest economy, rose at an annual 4.6 percent pace in the three months ended Dec. 31, the Cabinet Office said in Tokyo today, beating economist estimates. China told banks last week to set aside more cash as reserves for the second time in a month as the fastest-growing major economy moves to rein in accelerating loan growth. “People had expected this would happen after the Chinese New Year holidays,” Hama said. The Shanghai Futures Exchange is closed this week for the holidays, while markets in the U.S. are closed today for a public holiday. “The decline in Chinese imports of 546,000 tons we forecast this year will be more than offset by rising demand elsewhere,” Macquarie analysts including Colin Hamilton wrote in an a weekly report. “The 2010 market balance is a deficit of 300,000 to 400,000 tons following last year’s surplus.” Japan’s GDP was forecast to grow 3.5 percent, according to the median estimate of 25 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Third-quarter GDP was revised to zero from 1.3 percent growth. Aluminum was up 0.2 percent at $2,059.75 a ton, zinc was little changed at $2,171 a ton and lead slipped 0.4 percent to $2,125 a ton. Nickel climbed 0.3 percent to $18,700 a ton. To contact the reporter on this story: Jae Hur in Tokyo at jhur1@bloomberg.net

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