Crude oil edges higher to 81.23 but upside momentum remains a bit unconvincing. Nevertheless, in any case, further rise is still in favor as long as 77.05 support holds. Current rise from 69.50 might continue for a retest on 83.95 high next. On the downside, though, break of 77.05 will argue that rebound from 69.50 is completed. In such case, focus will be shifted back to 69.50 support instead.
In the bigger picture, crude oil was supported above mentioned 68.59 key support and thus, there was no confirmation of medium term reversal. The strong rebound from 72.43 dampened our bearish view and argue that medium term rise from 33.2 might not be over yet. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, though, break of 69.50 support will now indicate that crude oil has topped out in medium term already and turn outlook bearish.
