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FX: copper up, Shanghai eases ahead of trade numbers
 
* LME copper ticks up 0.5 pct, Shanghai slips 0.4 percent
* Copper supported by 10-day MA, capped at recent highs
* Nickel strength unsustainable -analyst
By Nick Trevethan
SINGAPORE, March 9 (Reuters) - London copper prices rose on Tuesday, paring the previous session's slide of 1 percent, while Shanghai metal ticked lower, with prices seen rangebound ahead of China's trade numbers expected on Thursday.
After sharp gains early last week on the back of Chile's 8.8 magnitude earthquake, copper prices have fallen into a trading range bounded by the 10-day moving average on the downside, and recent two-month highs above $7,600 on the upside.
For a graphic, click: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/NTrv_20100903114823.jpg
"There is a bit of a data vacuum which will be filled on Wednesday and Thursday," David Moore, commodities strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said.
"It will be interesting to see how the market interprets copper imports. If they are down, the market will discount that because of the Lunar New Year holiday. If they are up, it could result in a kick-up in prices."
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange rose $40 to $7,510 a tonne at 0424 GMT. In the previous session, the market touched $7,629.75, just off a two-month high before closing down 1 percent on the day.
"There is not a lot of direction. People are trading the ranges ahead of the China numbers. The influences are the dollar and stockpiles," a trader in Hong Kong said.
"The inventory data looks pretty supportive on the face of it -- there is certainly a downtrend developing and the high level of canceled warrants makes me think the declines will continue."
LME inventories have fallen 9,000 tonnes since March 2 to 541,575 tonnes and canceled warrants have risen to 5.5 percent of the total inventory.
Benchmark third-month Shanghai copper fell 250 yuan to 60,230 yuan and the most active June contract slipped half percent to 60,370 yuan.
Nickel fell $25 to $22,275, but remains near last week's 21-month high.
"Nickel prices look very strong. The market is taking heart from the fact stocks have stopped rising and have even fallen. The other supportive factor is the dispute at Vale's Canadian operations," Moore said,
"But I am sceptical whether nickel can hold these levels," he said adding that while copper was likely to slip into deficit in the medium term, the outlook for nickel was less certain given a slew of projects scheduled to start up in the next few years.
For analysis and a factbox, click:
Aluminium dipped $3 to $2,228.
Aluminium fabricator Novelis Inc said global demand growth for aluminium would rise 4 percent pace in 2010, with the emerging markets driving the growth, and it expects prices to show a slight positive uptrend.
Speaking to Reuters Mining and Steel Summit on Monday, Chief Operating Officer Philip Martens said: "We do see the outlook in the global marketplace picking up, but it depends on the region. It's slightly more on the optimistic side than four or five months ago." Base metals prices at 0424 GMT Metal Last Change Pct Move End 2009 YTD pct chg LME Cu 7510.00 40.00 +0.54 7375.00 1.83 SHFE Cu* 60230.00 -250.00 -0.41 59900.00 0.55 LME Alum 2228.00 -3.00 -0.13 2230.00 -0.09 SHFE Alum* 16825.00 -90.00 -0.53 17160.00 -1.95 COMEX Cu** 338.00 -1.65 -0.49 332.75 1.58 LME Zinc 2365.00 -5.00 -0.21 2560.00 -7.62 SHFE Zinc 18950.00 -95.00 -0.50 21195.00 -10.59 LME Nickel 22275.00 -25.00 -0.11 18525.00 20.24 LME Lead 2274.00 16.50 +0.73 2432.00 -6.50 LME Tin 17301.00 1.00 +0.01 16950.00 2.07 LME/Shanghai arb^ -250 Dollar/yuan 6.8262 \ 6.8268 ** 1st contract month for COMEX copper * 3rd contact month for SHFE aluminium, copper and zinc ^ LME 3-m copper in yuan, including 17 pct VAT, minus SHFE third month (Editing by Clarence Fernandez)
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