Copper fluctuated near a 31-month high in New York and a record in London amid renewed investor concerns about cooling measures in China and as the Federal Reserve prepares to discuss interest rates and bond purchases. U.S. retail sales in November probably jumped for a fifth consecutive month, economists said before a Commerce Department report today. The dollar fell today on speculation the Fed may signal it’s open to increasing debt purchases to boost growth. U.S. fiscal stimulus and “improving economic data” are supporting copper, said David Thurtell, an analyst at Citigroup Inc. in London. Copper for delivery in March climbed as much as 0.5 percent to $4.227 a pound on the Comex in New York, the highest price for a most-active contract since May 2008, and traded at $4.2025 at 8:06 a.m. Copper for delivery in three months was little- changed at $9,225.75 on the London Metal Exchange after rising to the all-time high of $9,267.50 a metric ton. Copper has gained 25 percent this year as declining stockpiles signaled more demand. German investor confidence improved for a second month in December as the recovery in Europe’s largest economy shows signs of broadening. German Confidence The ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim said its index of investor and analyst expectations, which aims to predict developments six months ahead, increased to 4.3 from 1.8 in November. Economists expected a gain to 3.9, according to the median of 36 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Fed policy makers meeting today may signal a willingness to boost debt purchases beyond the $600 billion already announced to spur job growth. LME inventories of copper have shrunk 30 percent this year, set for the first annual drop since 2004. They rose 450 tons to 350,900 tons today, daily exchange figures showed. The U.S. currency declined as much as 0.6 percent against a basket of currencies. A slumping dollar makes metals priced in the currency cheaper in terms of other monies and spurs demand for raw materials as an alternative investment. Copper’s “probably going to be $5 a pound ($11,023 a ton) in a year’s time,” John Stephenson, a fund manager at First Asset Investment Management Inc., said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “There’s really no supply coming on ‘till 2012, 2013 in an appreciable way.” Aurubis Outlook Aurubis AG, Europe’s largest copper smelter, said copper demand will grow “further” next year, supported by global economic growth. Immediate-delivery LME copper’s premium to three-month metal declined 14 percent to $60 today. Prices moved on Nov. 8 to a so-called backwardation, when nearby metal trades above longer-term contracts, potentially signaling supply concern. The fee to borrow copper for next-day delivery, the so- called tom-next spread, was last at a discount of 50 cents after jumping to a premium of as much as $13 today, compared with a discount of $2 yesterday and the highest since October 2008. An increase in the fee usually indicates tightening supply. Tin for three-month delivery on the LME fell 0.2 percent to $26,100 a ton. Prices reached a record $27,500 on Nov. 9. The metal has jumped 54 percent this year, leading advances on the exchange, after production was disrupted in Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Aluminum rose 1.2 percent to $2,358 a ton and nickel climbed 1.4 percent to $24,870 a ton. Lead gained 0.3 percent to $2,446 a ton and zinc added 0.2 percent to $2,326 a ton. To contact the reporter on this story: Maria Kolesnikova in Moscow at mkolesnikova@bloomberg.net

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