BLBG: Dollar, Equities Breakdown in Correlation Indicates Recovery
The breakdown of the correlation between a strengthening dollar and falling stocks for the first time since January 2009 indicates investors may be putting the global financial crisis behind them.
The CHART OF THE DAY shows the 22-day correlation coefficient between IntercontinentalExchange Inc.’s Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against currencies of six major U.S. trading partners, and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index turned positive last week.
“We’re starting to move beyond the financial crisis as a big influence for the markets and FX in particular,” said Shaun Osborne, chief foreign-exchange strategist at Toronto-Dominion Bank in Toronto.
The Dollar Index and the S&P 500 Index had a correlation of as high as 0.11 on Jan. 19. It touched a low of negative 0.74 in August. A correlation of negative 1 would mean the indexes move in the opposite direction, while a reading of 1 indicates the two are in lockstep.
Investors poured into the dollar for its relative safety after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in 2008 sent the world’s largest economy into a recession.
“We were highly reliant on dollar liquidity at the time,” Osborne said. “Perhaps we’re slowly getting back to a situation where the macroeconomic variables count for more.”
The Dollar Index added 6 percent in 2008, while the S&P 500 Index lost 38 percent.
To contact the reporter on this story: Catarina Saraiva in New York at asaraiva5@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dave Liedtka at dliedtka@bloomberg.net