FRX: Copper eyes $10,000 on big demand, short supply
MARKETS-METALS (UPDATE 3)
* Data shows accelerating growth in manufacturing sector
* Copper leads gains across metals complex
* Dollar falls to 12-week lows
(Adds comment/details, changes dateline from SINGAPORE)
By Susan Thomas
LONDON, Feb 2 (Reuters) - Copper rose to a record high on Wednesday, less than $12 short of the key $10,000 a tonne level spurred by solid manufacturing data that pointed to higher demand for the industrial metal, and a weaker dollar.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was trading at $9,966 a tonne at 1113 GMT compared with $9,945 at the close on Tuesday. It earlier hit a record of $9,988.25.
Copper has gained more than 60 percent since last June when markets tumbled, fearing sovereign default in euro zone countries such as Greece.
"The copper market is supply starved as demand rebounds strongly, even more strongly with the U.S. recovering and the rest of the world getting stronger, reinforcing the growth trends that out of Asia, particularly the BRIC economies of China and India," analyst Robin Bahr said.
HSBC's China Purchasing Manager Index data on Tuesday showed stronger growth in the country's manufacturing sector, followed by figures showing an acceleration in manufacturing in the euro zone and in the United States, which expanded at its fastest pace in nearly seven years.
Copper led strong gains across the broader base metals complex, with tin hitting a record high, nickel touching its highest since May 2008, zinc at a 10-week high and aluminium near its highest since September 2008.
The dollar hit 12-week lows, as the solid manufacturing data, low U.S. yields and stimulative U.S. monetary policy pushed investors towards riskier assets. A weaker dollar makes metals cheaper for holders of other currencies.
OPEN INTEREST
Data shows that since February 2009, copper prices have tripled, while open interest has risen by 25 percent and trade volumes by 50 percent, suggesting a rise in short-term trading and longer-term investment.
Traders said there was significant pent up speculative demand for metals and other commodities, and that fund money could force prices to overshoot.
"All the funds are doing is reinforcing the trends that are already there," Bahr said. Some money has trickled into ETF Securities' physical copper exchange traded products. The amount of metal in the copper product rose by 125 tonnes to 2,070 tonnes as of Feb. 1, according to ETF Securities website on Tuesday.
But runaway prices mean consumers in countries like China, which accounts for around 40 percent of the world's copper use, will limit their purchases.
Already, the record high price of copper and the week-long Chinese holidays that start on Wednesday have deterred fabricators of copper products.
Traders also say an added pressure on prices was options expiry at 1115 GMT. Prices tend to gravitate toward large pools of open interest ahead of options expiry as positions are covered.
"We've got options expiry and prices always move towards the area of greater open interest, so it suggests to me this is distressed covering by the shorts, helped along no doubt by the funds all jumping on the band wagon," Bhar added.
Analysts say global copper supplies will remain tight and help propel prices to $12,000 a tonne and higher as output struggles to keep up with demand into 2012 and perhaps beyond with the lack of new big mines coming through.
Nickel was at $28,100 from $27,950, aluminium was $2,550.25 from $2,551. Lead rose to $2,538 from $2,535 and zinc at $2,490 compared with $$2,472.
Metal Prices at 1111 GMT
Comex copper in cents/lb, LME prices in $/T and SHFE prices in yuan/T Metal Last Change Percent Move End 2010 Ytd Percent
move COMEX Cu 454.70 0.00 +0.00 444.70 2.25 LME Alum 2535.00 -16.00 -0.63 2470.00 2.63 LME Cu 9950.00 5.00 +0.05 9600.00 3.65 LME Lead 2555.00 45.00 +1.79 2550.00 0.20 LME Nickel 27800.00 -150.00 -0.54 24750.00 12.32 LME Tin 30000.00 -155.00 -0.51 26900.00 11.52 LME Zinc 2470.00 43.00 +1.77 2454.00 0.65 SHFE Alu 17130.00 205.00 +1.21 16840.00 1.72 SHFE Cu* 74950.00 1530.00 +2.08 71850.00 4.31 SHFE Zin 19460.00 760.00 +4.06 19475.00 -0.08 ** Benchmark month for COMEX copper * 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07